Hopkins Enrollment Continues Downward Slide

enrollment decline continued its downward trend into the 2011-2012 school year.

The district had 103 fewer students Oct. 1 than it had a year earlier, according to a report discussed at Thursday’s board meeting. All told, the 7,105 students in Hopkins this year is a 1.4 percent drop from 2010 and a 2.9 percent drop from three years earlier.

Forecasting models predict the decline will level off—with losses dropping to the double digits by 2014 and to just 13 students in 2016.

Enrollment is key for districts because so-called “per-pupil payments” based on the number of students determine a large part of their budgets.

Demographics

Demographic trends account for a significant part of the decline. In recent years, the housing crisis encouraged parents to stay in their homes after their children moved out—instead of making way for other families with children.

One of the key enrollmeny metrics is the difference between 12th grade and kindergarten populations. The difference this year was 135 students, meaning more students are graduating from Hopkins schools than are coming in.

This echoes the underlying population trends. Of the seven cities that make up Hopkins Public School, just three saw growth in the number of children 4 years old and younger between 2000 and 2010, according to Hennepin County. Two of those—Edina and St. Louis Park—have just a fraction of their population in Hopkins’ boundaries. That means the gains there aren’t large enough to offset losses in larger cities, such as Minnetonka and Golden Valley, that have 50 percent or more of their community in Hopkins' boundaries.

The trend is worse for school-age children. The number of children ages 5 to 19 increased in just two cities—Hopkins and Edina.

Hopkins, more than almost any other community, . It saw growth in both categories—and in its population as a whole. Just Tuesday, Hennepin County Commissioner Jan Callison noted Hopkins was one of the few communities in her district not shrinking—even as she predicted population declines elsewhere would cause her area to expand with the next redistricting plan.

Other challenges

But demographics are only one of the causes. Open enrollment is accounting for a larger and larger portion of the district’s population.

Outside students enrolling in the district are expected to account for just under 18 percent of Hopkins students. Meanwhile, about 12 percent of Hopkins students are thought to have enrolled in other districts. (2011 open enrollment numbers are estimates.)

Although open enrollment is still a net benefit for Hopkins schools, its benefits are shrinking. In 2005, there were 2.05 students coming in for every student going out. For 2011, the district expects that ratio to be 1.42.

Much of this loss is attributable to one district: Minnetonka. While enrollment in most other districts has remained stable, the number of Hopkins students leaving for Minnetonka is expected to nearly quadruple between the 2006-2007 school year and this one.

“I think we have to look at a number of different places we can shore up our numbers if we can,” said School Board Director Warren Goodroad. “It’s tough. We can’t affect the birthrate but we can open enrollment.”

Returning to positive

But the enrollment numbers arrive just as the district is investigating further measures that could affect the trend. After Thursday’s enrollment discussion, directors spoke with staff about communications and marketing ideas. Of that effort’s four goals, two center on boosting enrollment: encouraging Hopkins families to choose Hopkins and increasing open enrollment into Hopkins.

offered insight into how the district might go about meeting those goals. The survey found that nearly 45 percent of students who open enroll out of Hopkins do so when they are 5 years old or younger—meaning focusing on parents of preschoolers could pay dividends.

The survey analyst also said Hopkins needs to do a better job spelling out how it personalizes instruction for students.

“Grab (that concept) and define it yourself,” he said. “The school district, I think, needs to clarify its brand much better.”

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Hopkins Public Schools enrollment