Community Corner

What questions do you have about bin Laden's death?

Hopkins residents have heard the news, but questions remain.

Like people across the country, Hopkins residents turned on the news to find that U.S. forces had killed America’s most prominent enemy. Like people across the country, we watched the celebration and talk of terror alerts following Osama bin Laden’s death. Like people across the country, we heard analysts’ certainty about what this means for the United States.

And yet this day is, in its own way, as perplexing as that fateful Sept. 11 nearly a decade ago. We’re facing a new chapter in history—a new chapter that, if we’re honest with ourselves, poses questions that don’t really have answers right now.

What does this mean for al-Qaida’s terrorism potential? Since bin Laden went into hiding, everyone from experts to amateurs has debated the effects his death would have on the organization. On one hand, the al-Qaida leader was clearly a central figure in the organization who was an inspiration to many of America’s enemies. On the other, some believed that al-Qaida had become a decentralized organization with bin Laden largely absent from operational planning. Exactly how decentralized al-Qaida really is has been the subject of fierce debate. Experts like CNN national security analyst Peter Bergen argue that there is a clear link between an attack’s lethality and its level of top-down planning—with the 7/7 London bombing and, of course, the 9/11 attack both having clear organization. Other analysts, such as sociologist and former CIA case officer Marc Sageman, have argued that al-Qaida had largely become a so-called “leaderless jihad.” Even if al-Qaida is as decentralized as some argue, the strike could still be crippling. Systematically capturing or killing leaders of insurgent networks is widely credited with helping to reduce violence in Iraq—along with extra manpower and cooperation from local allies willing to combat the insurgents themselves. Bottom line: For once, we may be able to resolve one of history’s “what ifs.”

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What does this mean for America’s enemies? The Islamic militants that American forces are fighting often get lumped into the single category of “jihadists.” This obscures the very different motivations that these groups have—and likely the very different effects that they’ll feel from bin Laden’s death.

  • There are al-Qaida proper, with a clear and direct association to bin Laden.
  • There are the various al-Qaida “franchises,” such as al-Qaida in Iraq, that are one level removed and often have their own leaders and their own agendas. Some of these even began life as different organizations and only later swore an oath of fealty to bin Laden.
  • There are al-Qaida-allied groups, such as al-Shabaab, that have region-specific aims. Al-Shabaab, which recruited Somali Minnesotans, launched an insurgency in Somalia in 2006 and didn’t claim a link with al-Qaida until a year later. It was only in 2009 that the organization formally pledged allegiance to bin Laden. These groups may ally with al-Qaida when their aims converge. But friction between them and al-Qaida parties can also arise when those aims don’t align or once they’ve achieved their more-limited aims.
  • And finally there are all the other militants fighting American forces in war zones. These range from groups like the Taliban that have been allied with al-Qaida to Shiite groups in Iraq that fought their own bloody struggles against al-Qaida to conventional forces like Libya’s military. These forces, themselves a collection of different groups with different agendas, make up the vast majority of enemy fighters. The CIA estimates that at the height of its power, al-Qaida in Iraq had no more than several thousand fighters. By contrast, reports following Muqtada al-Sadr’s Madhi Army uprising in 2008 estimated that the group had tens of thousands of fighters in the country.

America’s enemies are a varied lot. Each will likely feel bin Laden’s death differently and to a different extent. Some may even benefit. Exactly what happens will be one of the more vital news stories in the coming months and years.

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What does it mean for us? TV screens are full of celebration and talk of terror alerts—with good reason. But bin Laden’s death brings with it new dilemmas that Americans will have to grapple with. How—if at all—does this change our relationship to the Greater Middle East? How—if at all—does it change our approach to combating terrorism? Can we identify our interests correctly and, if so, pursue those interests doggedly?

Bin Laden’s death may mark the end of one chapter. But it also marks the start of another just as complex. And with that complexity, only one thing can be certain: There are sure to be questions.


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